Security trends on the Eurasian Periphery and Their
impact on Eurasia
By: Nika Chitadze. Ph.D.
President of the George C.
Marshall Alumni Union, Georgia – International and Security Research Center
NATO School. Oberammergau
(Germany). February, 2005
Introduction
Eurasia /jʊəˈreɪʒə/ is
the combined continental landmass of Europe and Asia. The term is
a portmanteau of
its constituent continents (Europe and Asia). Located primarily in the Northern and Eastern Hemispheres, it is bordered by
the Atlantic Ocean to the west, the Pacific Ocean to
the east, the Arctic Ocean to
the north, and by Africa, the Mediterranean
Sea, and the Indian Ocean to
the south. The division between Europe and Asia as two different
continents is a historical social
construct, with no clear physical separation between them; thus, in
some parts of the world, Eurasia is recognized as the largest of the six, five,
or even four continents on Earth. In geology, Eurasia is often considered as a
single rigid mega block. However, the rigidity of Eurasia is debated based
on paleomagnetic data.
Eurasia covers around 55,000,000
square kilometers (21,000,000 sq. mi), or around 36.2% of the Earth's total land area.
The landmass contains well over 5 billion people, equating to approximately 70%
of the human population. Humans first settled in
Eurasia between 60,000 and 125,000 years ago. Some major islands,
including Great Britain, Iceland,
and Ireland,
and those of Japan,
the Philippines
and Indonesia,
are often included under the popular definition of Eurasia, in spite of being
separate from the contiguous landmass.
Geopolitics
Originally, “Eurasia” is a geographical notion: in this
sense, it is simply the biggest continent; the combined landmass of Europe and
Asia. However, geopolitically, the word has several different meanings,
reflecting the specific geopolitical interests of each nation. “Eurasia” is one
of the most important geopolitical concepts; as Zbigniew Brzezinski observed:
“... how America "manages"
Eurasia is critical. A power that dominates “Eurasia” would control two of the world’s
three most advanced and economically productive regions. A mere glance at the
map also suggests that control “Eurasia” would almost automatically entail
Africa’s subordination, rendering the Western Hemisphere and Oceania
geopolitically peripheral to the world’s central continent. About 75 per cent
of the world’s people live in “Eurasia”, and most of the world’s physical
wealth is there as well, both in its enterprises and underneath its soil.
“Eurasia” accounts for about three-fourths of the world’s known energy
resources.”
At the moment one of the most prominent projects of
the European Union (EU) is the Russia
- EU Four Common Spaces Initiative. However,
no significant progress was made and the project was put on hold after
Russia-EU relations deteriorated after the crisis in Ukraine. An economic union
of former Soviet states named the Eurasian Economic
Union was established in 2015,
similar in concept to the EU.
The Russian concept of “Eurasia” corresponded initially more
or less to the land area of Imperial Russia in 1914, including parts of Eastern Europe. One
of Russia's main geopolitical interests lies in ever closer integration with
those countries that it considers part of “Eurasia.” This concept is
further integrated with communist eschatology by author Alexander Dugin as the guiding principle of "self-sufficiency of
a large space" during expansion.
Security Trends in the Eurasian periphery
After the ending of the
“Cold War” and disintegration of USSR, the Eurasian Periphery, crossroad
between Europe and Asia has become a new strategic frontier for Europe, Russia
and the United States in terms of energy security, frozen and festering
conflicts, trade links, migration, and other key policy areas. Prospects for
the region in the 21st century will be shaped by the interaction between major
external actors, the ambitions of states and peoples in the region, and the
region’s role as a crossroads of civilizations.
The
strategic importance of the territory –
border between Europe and Asia, which includes Black Sea/Caspian Region,
situated at the crossroads of three important areas - Europe, Middle East and
Central Asia – has been traditionally recognized by the players having
strategic interests around this sea. However, a complex history and a
complicated political environment have obscured the consolidation of a regional
identity.
However, this part of the
world still faces many problems and challenges, which have to be solved by the
countries of the Region and on a global level by the International Community.
Among those challenges it is necessary to mention the following issues:
Due to
the development of communications and transportation means among regions and
their “coming closer” to each other, terrorism and trans-border crime has
gradually reached a large scale. Consequently, the necessity of combating
trans-border crime became crucial. The increasing of the geopolitical interests
of the USA and European Union together with the other “geopolitical players”
towards the strategically important Black Sea/Caspian Region sets new
challenges and goals for the International democratic community. For example,
when there are analyzed particularly interests of USA and EU, it should be
pointed out, that the Black Sea/Caspian Region is surrounded by Iran, Middle
East and Central Asia Regions, Russian Federation and European Union. This
factor is generating active interest for the cooperation with the Black
Sea/Caspian region`s countries against terrorism and trans-border crime.
Western countries are especially interested in the fighting against such
illegal activities as: trafficking in persons, drugs, weapons and radioactive
materials; illegal migration problems, and cooperation against organized crime
and terrorism. The cooperation of the USA and European Union and such organizations
– as for example is NATO with the countries in the region – which is located on
the crossroads of Eurasia is extremely important for the efficient fight
against the abovementioned crimes.
The cooperation between the Black Sea/Caspian basin
countries on the one hand and their cooperation with the International
democratic community on the other for struggling and combating terrorism and
other types of the trans-border crime is an issue of interest for each and
every stakeholder. The countries should benefit from the International
community`s interest and receive needed assistance in the format of
cooperation. The assistance may include sharing experience, technical
assistance, development of a uniform policy and standards etc. State agencies
controlling the borders should become the main weapon in the process of
combating trans-border crime. These agencies are Border Protection and Customs
Service. The ultimate goal for the measures implemented in this field should be
the establishment of a modern integrated system of border control, which
naturally comprises cooperation between the states of the region with each
other and with International community in general.
Crimes such as
trafficking in persons, drugs, weapons and radioactive materials, problems of
illegal migration, cooperation against organized crime and terrorism are not
yet adequately researched. Extensive research on the factors causing the crime,
encouraging conditions, existing tendencies, and prevalent schemes and
mechanisms for committing crimes has not been conducted so far. Therefore,
complex mechanisms of measures and steps for combating the crime have never
been developed. The review of the existing situation in this are is more of a
general nature which once again demonstrates the need for conducting broader
researches on these issues.
Geopolitical
location of the Eurasian Crossroad
Due to the
convenient geopolitical location, Black Sea/Caspian Region is one of the most important area in the world
and plays an extremely important role in the modern global security affairs.
As
it is known, that the fundamental changes on the political map of the region
took place at the end of 80s and the beginning of 90s of the last Century,
which was interrelated with the political changes in eastern Europe and
post-soviet space, such as democratic transitions in Romania and Bulgaria,
disintegration of the USSR and gaining the national independence by the former
soviet republics from the greater Black
Sea region-Russian Federation, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan.
Today
each state of the region has its own foreign policy and national security
priorities.
Different
other types of the negative processes in Eurasian periphery will be discussed
below.
Positive
Aspects in Eurasia
The
post cold war period in the Eurasian continent Region brought lots of positive
results. Among those it is necessary to mention the following:
Enlargement of Democracy and increasing the number of democratic
states in Europe and Asia;
Joining to the NATO Program
Partnership for Peace countries of the Region;
Joining to Council of Europe former Communist
countries and former Soviet Republics;
Foundation of GUAM with
participation of the four countries of the Region;
Expansion of NATO and EU and joining Bulgaria and Romania to the
North-Atlantic Alliance and European Union;
Activate the negotiation process
between Turkey and EU regarding the joining of Turkey to the European Union;
“Rose revolution” in Georgia and
“Orange Revolution” in Ukraine;
Starting the Intensive Dialogue
process with NATO by Ukraine and Georgia;
Practically ending of the conflict
on the territory of Chechnya;
Involvement of the several countries
of the region to the EU neighborhood Initiative;
Beginning of the implementation of
Global Economic projects with the participation of the States of the Region; 1.
Euro-Asian transport corridor 2. Caspian Oil Projects.
Negative Aspect in the Black Sea Region
Above-mentioned facts give us the
reason to assume, that in the beginning of XXI Century, Region is more
democratic and more secure. However, this part of the world still faces many problems and challenges,
which have to be solved by the countries of the Region and on a global level by
the International Community. Among those challenges it is necessary to mention
the following issues:
Terrorism - terrorist
groups still continue to carry out the terrorist acts. In this case first of
all should be mentioned about Kurdish terrorist groups in Turkey, existence of
the terrorist groups in Chechnya, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Other reason of the expansion of
terrorism is aggressive separatism. Separatist regions represent the
uncontrolled territories and create very convenient conditions for the establishment of the terrorist camps,
for example, we can mention here the cases of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and
Chechnya. Separatist territories also represent a good base for illegal trade,
especially illegal circulation of drugs. Besides, the biggest problems of
separatism is the presence of illegal Armed formations, which are armed with
the modern military equipment. In most of the cases the reason of separatist
movement is the existence of some states in Black Sea Region, in which official
Authorities encourage the separatist movements and terrorist groups in other
states by providing de-facto authorities of separatist regions by weapons,
financial support etc.
The most important problem, which
hampers the development of cooperation in the Black Sea Region is existence of
confrontations between Russia and Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Armenia and
Turkey, Russia and Moldova;
Among the economic problems has to
be mentioned the problem, regarding the energy security of the region.
Perspectives
of solution the security problems in Black Sea Region
In
spite the existence of many problems in the Region, above mentioned latest
positive events give us the reason to say that there are possibilities for
solving security problems. First of all, the most important factor is the NATO
enlargement and it’s raising role in the world’s global security environment.
After
the fact the new members of Baltic and western coast of the Black Sea region
joined NATO, the main strategy of the Alliance can now include more intensive
cooperation with the former soviet republics from the Black Sea Region. First
of all, it is necessary to mention about speech of former Secretary General of
NATO in August of 2002 in Glasgow. He mentioned that `New and energetic
relations with the countries of Caucasus would be one of the symbol of NATO in
21st Century.` Certainly, it does not mean that very soon states of
Caucasus, also Ukraine and Moldova will become the plenipotentiary members of
NATO, but active cooperation in terms of sharing NATO’s experience in the field
of security sector reform (civil-military relations), transition the Armed
forces to the NATO standards, defense management, strengthening the democratic
institutions, social-economic development
and so forth, will play a positive role in the democratic processes in
the Black Sea area by strengthening
national independence and national security of this countries.
Economic
aspects are very important for the solution of the security problems in the
Region. Economic development can defeat separatism, because de-facto
authorities and population of the separatist regions will be willing more to be
integrated into the country, which they are separated from.
Among
the economic aspects for solving security problems in the Region,
implementation of international economic projects are key to mention. In these
projects many states of Europe and Asia – including countries from Black Sea
Region are engaged, which clearly demonstrates the process of Globalization.
First of all, it is project of Euro-Asian Transport Corridor and revival of the
`Great Silk Road.` Starting from the 8-7 century B. C., states of Asia (China,
India) had very close relations with antique Greek cities and later regions of
Roman Empire through the territories of modern Turkey, Caucasus Region, western
part of the Black Sea cost. The territory of the `Great Silk Road` included
several routes on the way between Europe and Asia but the most important
territory represents Black Sea Region. .
In
September of 1998, the International conference called `Revival of the
historical silk road` was held. The representatives of 32 states including of
course states from the Black Sea Region and 13 International Organizations
attended the conference. Participants signed an agreement on the beginning of
the construction works for the creation communication and transport corridor of
Eurasia. Today, the main coordinator of TRACECA (Transport Corridor
Europe-Caucasus-Asia) is the European
Union funded - TACIS program.
Energy Projects which are implemented in the Region
Oil and Gas are the main sources of
energy and their share is more than 60% in the world fuel economy and according
to the forecast of experts, demand on oil will be increased about 25-30% for
2015. At the same time most of the countries of the Black Sea Region represent
oil and gas importers. In this regard states of the region are trying to find
the different alternative ways for the import of the energy resources. In this
case one of the key role can play Caspian energy projects, where can be
involved both-oil and gas-producers and oil and gas-importers of the Region.
Because
of significant amount of oil and natural gas in Caspian Region – 200 Billion
Barrels (32 Billion Tones) – Caspian Sea region has become the area of
strategic interests of many leading Countries of the world. America and other
democratic and economically developed states during the last several years are
seriously considering extraction and exploration of Caspian Oil and Natural
gas, which is a very important political and economic factor. One of the
priorities for western states is to avoid the dependence on politically
unstable Middle East and Russia, to find the alternatives sources in the
oil-rich regions and to allow their oil companies to explore oil fields there.
There
are several main players in the in the wide Black Sea area, which have their
own strategic interests toward the energy projects. In this regard should be
pointed out the following countries:
USA
American government has three main interests in the region:
1) USA imports oil from the
Persian Gulf and Latin America, which are politically unstable regions.
Therefore, American government is looking for alternative sources for its oil
import.
2)
US Authorities have their commercial interests in the field of exploitation and
transportation of oil. They hope that expansion of the American companies in
the region will contribute to economic development in the countries of the
Caucasus and Central Asia, and further integration of the region into the world
economic system. Expansion of commercial activities of the American companies in
Caucasus, important investments and installation of modern American technologies will bring the increasing of
political influence of USA in the Caspian Sea Territory.
3)
These projects will reduce foreign threat, support independence and territorial
integrity of Black Sea and Caspian states. It will also promote development of
the democratic institutions and principles of market economy in Caucasus and
Central Asia. According to the opinion of western scientists, transportation of
Caspian oil will be one of the main contributors to economic development and
political stability in oil-rich Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and also for Georgia, as
a transit state.
EU
In
fact, the states of EU, have the same kind of interests in the region. However,
European states are against the monopolistic position of the U.S. and they try
to play more active role in on-going processes in the region. Last events,
regarding the export of natural gas and oil from Russian Federation to Europe,
and problems, which in this case have been emerged between Russia and Ukraine
in January 2006, and Russia with Belarus in January 2007, has clearly shown,
that EU needs to determine the new energy strategy for the providing its energy
security. according to this, we can assume, that strategic interests of EU
toward the Caspian energy projects and wide Black Sea region will increase and
this factor will be positive reflected on the further development of the
countries of the region.
Turkey
Turkey is one of the key player in the energy projects. After the
signing of the oil contracts with the world leading oil companies by Azerbaijan
in 1994, Turkey has played an active role to support Azerbaijan and Georgia
during the negotiation processes regarding the final determination of the
pipeline routes. Due to the very important positive role of the country, it was
managed to sign Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline
projects.
Russian Federation
Among
the conservative political circles of Russia, there is a fear that
implementation of oil and gas projects in Caspian Region will result in lose of
Russia’s political influence in the region, and will decrease the volume of
Russia’s oil and gas exports. Additional volume of oil and gas will decrease
the international prices on oil and gas, which subsequently will reduce incomes
to the Russian state budget. However, democratic forces of Russia understand
and support projects, because it is seen to bring stability in the region and
create the convenient base for the development of friendly relations with the
states of Caucasus and Central Asia. It’s also worth mentioning that Russia
itself is an active participant in these projects. Since 1997 an oil pipeline
connecting Baku (Azerbaijan) to the Russian port of Novorossiysk has been put
into operation. Besides, two years ago the pipeline from Kazakhstan to
Novorossiysk was also recovered. Russian Company `Lukoil` represents the
shareholder of International oil consortium which is engaged in oil projects on
the territory of Azerbaijan.
With regard to China and Japan, they
also have significant interests in the successful implementation of the
projects. In China demand for oil exceeded 50 million tones and national oil
company of this state conducts the active negotiations with the Kazakhstani
government for building the alternative pipeline from Central Asia to China.
Japan, which is depended on the oil
import for 100%, is also actively engaged in the Caspian Oil projects through
Japanese oil company `Itochy.`
There are some worries in the political
circles of Iran and Arab States about mentioned projects. Certainly, additional
volume of oil within the international oil market will decrease oil prices,
which is not profitable for these states. In addition, they are against western
expansion close to their borders. However, Iranian authorities are interested
in stable Caucasus, which will enable them to use Black Sea ports to be easily
connected with other regions of the world.
Conclusion
21st century creates good
prospects for cooperation among the states. The reason of it is democratization
of the world including of course, Black Sea Region. It gives us the reason to
say, that security, political and economic problems in the region including the
energy security problems will be gradually solved.
Finally, It is necessary to pay
attention to the opinion of the great German philosopher, Immanuel Kant, who
has mentioned that humanity would get the common and eternal peace. Let’s hope
that this time will come very soon in all regions of the world, including Black
Sea Region.
References:
Eugene B. Rumer and Jeffrey Simon. “Toward a
Euro-Atlantic Strategy for the Black Sea Region”. National Defense University
Press. Washington D.C. April, 2006. pp. 8-19;
McCarthy, J. “The geopolitics of Caspian Oil,” Jane’s
Intelligence Review, July 2000, p.21;
Maksimenko, V. “Central Asia and the Caucasus:
geopolitical entity explained”, Central Asia and the Caucasus, no.3 (2000);
Rondeli Alexander. “The Security of the Caspian Sea
Region.” SIPRI. Oxford University Press, 2001. pp. 195-212.
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