Withdrawal of the US Troops from Syria and its Impact on the Security Environment in the Black Sea Region

By: Nika Chitadze. Ph.D. (Political Geography)

President of the George C. Marshall Alumni Union, Georgia – International and Security Research Center  

Director of the Center for International Studies

Professor of the International Black Sea University

As it is known, US President Donald Trump adopted the decision about withdrawal of about 2 thousand American military serviceman from Syria.

There is possibility, that one of the main purpose of the American contingent withdrawal can be the restoration of the old close relations between USA and Turkey and prevention the strengthening cooperation between Moscow and Ankara.

Due to the different reasons, the relations between two leading NATO member states, USA and Turkey have been significantly deteriorated. Particularly, if both countries are interesting in the ending of Assad regime in Syria, one of the main examples of the existence the disagreements could be the supporting by USA the Kurdish military formations near the border between Turkey and Syria. From its turn, Turkey considers the Kurdish armed formations  on the territory of Syria as terrorist groups. Besides, official Ankara is afraid, that in case of possible activation of separatism tendencies on the territory of Syria, which is settled by ethnic Kurds, can influence on the situation in the South-Eastern provinces of Turkey, which are settled by Kurdish population. As the relations between Washington and Ankara were deteriorating, there was becoming more closer and closer the relations between Moscow and Ankara. For example, in 2017, the volume of trade between two countries (Russia and Turkey) was 23, 36 Billion USD, which prevailed the volume in 2016 for 37%. In 2018, based on the different sources, trade volume prevailed 30 Billion USD.       

Besides, by the initiative of Russian President Vladimer Putin, meeting of the leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran related to the situation in Syria was held.

Moscow and Ankara are actively considering construction of gas pipeline in the framework of the project “Blue stream - 2”, by the agency of which Turkey will import an additional volume of gas (more than 30 Billion Cubic Meters) from Russia.

As a result of the complicating the relation between USA and Turkey, Ankara and Moscow were activating the relations in military-technical spheres too. For example, clear example of this represents the fact, that official Kremlin expressed the readiness to sell for Turkey the modern S-400 type anti-aircraft systems, which has caused the anger from the Pentagon side. In this regard, American congressman, who worked on defense and security issues, required stopping the delivering for Turkey American military plains F-35.

Despite the fact, that relations among of the strongest from military point of view (Turkish Army is the biggest by its number in Europe) two NATO members were deteriorating, within the last one month about the possible improvements of the bilateral relations should be pointed out. Particularly, official Washington agreed on the selling for Turkey Patriot Missile Long-Range Air-Defence System and despite the resistance from the Secretary of Defense James Mattis, President Trump decided to withdraw the American troops from Syria.

It can be considered the two versions of the American decision related to Syria. Particularly, instead of the leaving by the American contingent Syria, Turkey had to protect the rights of the Kurdish population in the Northern provinces of Syria, near the state border with Turkey. At the same time Trump declared, that in case of violation the rights of the Kurdish population, America would adopt the economic sanctions against Turkey (which USA did several month ago, after the increasing the custom tariffs on the Turkish production on the American market, which seriously affected on the rate of national currency of Turkey - lira). 

According to the second version, if Turkey anyway starts the new company on the territory near the Turkey-Syria border and somehow will try to weaken the military potential of the Kurdish armed formations, which were trained by US instructors, Trump anyway will pay more attention to the other direction – weakening the Turkey-Russia alliance and instead (as  a result of the restoration the good relations with Turkey) to promote the activity of NATO and USA in the strategically important Black Sea Region.

 Thus, most probably it is not the coincidence, that The U.S. Navy’s dock landing ship Fort McHenry pulled into the Black Sea space in the beginning of 2019  what officials term a “routine port visit” after transiting the Dardanelles Strait from the Mediterranean Sea the day before.

That makes Fort McHenry the first American warship to enter the Eastern European waterway since Russia seized three Ukrainian vessels on Nov. 25 in the Kerch Strait.

“We routinely operate in the Black Sea consistent with international law and the Montreux Convention and will continue to do so,” said Navy 6th Fleet spokesman Cmdr. Kyle Raines.

The possible improvements of the relations between USA and Turkey can be positively reflected on the security environment in the Black Sea Region, because it is necessary to point out, that strengthening of the NATO`s position in the Black Sea without taking into account the Turkish factor will be difficult. Thus, in the interests of the western countries should be the establishment good relations between USA and Turkey, otherwise, Moscow can take advantage and increase its geopolitical influence in the strategically important Black Sea Region.